Sensex, Nifty End Flat Amid Volatility; FII Selling, US Tariff Worries Weigh on Sentiment

Markets rebound from steep intraday lows; FMCG stocks lead gains while IT and media drag

Published on: July 7, 2025

Indian equity markets ended a highly volatile session nearly flat on Friday, as investor sentiment remained jittery ahead of the July 9 U.S. tariff announcement and continued foreign institutional investor (FII) selling. The BSE Sensex added just 9.61 points to close at 83,442.50, while the NSE Nifty50 ended marginally changed at 25,461.30.

Markets opened sharply lower on the back of weak global cues and trade concerns, with the Sensex falling nearly 500 points in early trade. However, select buying in heavyweight stocks like HUL, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ITC, and Reliance Industries helped pare losses by the end of the session. U.S. President Donald Trump's delay in implementing the new tariffs until August 1 offered some late-session relief, stabilising risk sentiment.

FMCG stocks led sectoral gains, with the Nifty FMCG index rising 1.68%. On the flip side, heavy selling in IT and telecom dragged the Midsmall IT index and media stocks lower by over 1%. The broader Nifty Microcap250 index fell 0.47%.

FIIs continued their selling spree, pulling out ₹760.11 crore from Indian equities on Friday, extending the trend of persistent outflows that has pressured market momentum recently.

Looking ahead, analysts expect markets to remain cautious as global trade developments, corporate earnings season, crude oil prices, and institutional flows are likely to influence short-term direction.

Credit Growth Outpaces Deposits in Q1; Liquidity Pressures Loom for Indian Banks

Banks struggle to mobilise deposits amid strong loan demand; Analysts warn of potential funding stress if trend persists

Published on: July 7, 2025

Indian banks reported a continued divergence between credit and deposit growth in the April–June quarter, with most lenders witnessing stronger advances but slower deposit mobilisation, according to provisional data released by banks. This trend spanned across public, private, and small finance banks, with credit growth significantly outpacing deposits for many institutions.

HDFC Bank stood out as an exception with deposits (16.4%) outpacing credit growth (6.7%) due to the impact of its merger with HDFC Ltd. In contrast, IndusInd Bank reported a decline in both deposits and advances amid ongoing scrutiny from a derivative accounting issue. Among private banks, CSB Bank was a strong performer, posting a 32% jump in advances, driven by gold loans, while deposits rose 20%. AU Small Finance Bank and Suryoday SFB were rare examples where deposit growth exceeded credit growth, rising over 30% YoY.

Public sector banks like Bank of Baroda and Bank of India saw advances grow faster than deposits, while UCO Bank led in credit growth at 16.6%. Yes Bank and ESAF Small Finance Bank reported the slowest deposit growth among peers.

System-wide, credit growth for scheduled commercial banks moderated to 9.6% YoY as of June 13, while deposit growth stood slightly higher at 10.3%, according to RBI data. Analysts warned that the growing credit-deposit gap could strain banking system liquidity, possibly forcing lenders to hike deposit rates or explore alternative funding options. With the economy on a recovery path, attracting adequate deposits will be critical to sustaining credit-led expansion, experts said.

Sensex, Nifty to See Modest Q1 Earnings Growth; Reliance, ICICI Bank Among Key Drivers

Kotak Institutional Equities and MOFSL project 4–6% YoY profit growth for June quarter; 10 Nifty firms to post over 20% PAT growth

Published on: July 7, 2025

Stock market benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty are expected to report modest year-on-year (YoY) earnings growth of 6.1% and 4.1% respectively for the June quarter (Q1FY26), according to previews by Kotak Institutional Equities and Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL). Key contributors to the growth include Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank, while companies like Coal India, Tata Motors, and ONGC are likely to weigh on performance.

Kotak forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for the BSE-30 at ₹3,700 in FY26 and ₹4,308 in FY27. For Nifty, projected EPS stands at ₹1,125 for FY26 and ₹1,300 for FY27. MOFSL expects 10 Nifty companies to post PAT growth above 20% YoY, with Bharti Airtel (108%), Reliance (32.1%), and JSW Steel leading the pack. Meanwhile, 15 Nifty firms are projected to see profit declines.

MOFSL slightly lowered its FY26/FY27 Nifty EPS estimates and now expects 11% and 17% YoY growth, respectively. Among sectors, BFSI, Auto, Consumer, and Metals have seen the biggest estimate cuts. The brokerage remains positive on largecaps like ICICI Bank, L&T, Bharti Airtel, and Ultratech Cement, while recommending midcap and smallcap stocks such as Dixon Tech, Suzlon Energy, SRF, and Coforge.

VRL Logistics Approves 1:1 Bonus Share Issue, Doubles Paid-Up Capital

Board Clears Bonus Issue from Reserves; Stock Volatile Despite Positive Analyst Sentiment

Published on: July 4, 2025

VRL Logistics Ltd. has announced a 1:1 bonus share issue, as per an exchange filing on Friday. The move, approved at the company’s Board meeting held on July 4, 2025, will award shareholders one new fully paid-up equity share for every existing share they hold, subject to shareholder approval.

The bonus shares will be issued by capitalizing the company’s free reserves and accumulated surplus. The record date for determining shareholder eligibility will be disclosed separately.

Currently, VRL Logistics’ paid-up share capital stands at 8.75 crore equity shares with a face value of ₹10 each. Following the bonus issue, this will double to 17.49 crore shares, taking the total paid-up capital to ₹17,493.70 lakh.

The bonus issue will be funded from reserves, which include a securities premium of ₹3,694 lakh, general reserve of ₹17,167.30 lakh, capital redemption reserve of ₹377.50 lakh, and retained earnings of ₹78,469 lakh as of March 31, 2025.

Following the announcement, the stock rose up to 1.81% to ₹605.80 but later slipped to ₹594.05, down 0.17% as of 12:11 p.m., underperforming the Nifty 50’s 0.22% decline. Trading volume stood at 1.08 times the 30-day average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 67, indicating strong momentum.

According to Bloomberg data, 9 out of 10 analysts covering VRL Logistics maintain a 'buy' rating, with one recommending 'hold'. The average 12-month consensus price target indicates a potential upside of 15.5%.

Markets End Higher Amid Global Uncertainty; Sensex Gains 193 Points

IT, Pharma, FMCG Lead Late Rally; Investors Eye U.S. Tariff Risks and Geopolitical Cues

Published on: July 4, 2025

Indian equity benchmarks closed higher on Friday, rebounding sharply in the final hour of trade after a largely rangebound session. The BSE Sensex rose 193.42 points to settle at 83,432.89, while the Nifty 50 added 55.7 points to end at 25,461. Gains in IT, pharma, and FMCG stocks drove the late surge, offsetting concerns over proposed U.S. tariff actions under former President Donald Trump’s policy outlook.

In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices edged up 0.04% and 0.11%, respectively, reflecting cautious optimism beyond large-cap stocks.

Key gainers included Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever, HCL Technologies, Eternal (Zomato), TCS, and ICICI Bank. However, stocks like Trent, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, and Sun Pharma lagged behind.

Among sectors, Nifty IT led with a 0.83% gain, followed by pharma, FMCG, auto, and banking. Nifty Metal declined amid pressure from global commodity weakness.

While domestic momentum improved late in the day, investor sentiment remained wary due to global uncertainties and expected geopolitical developments, with analysts projecting continued market volatility in the near term.

Rupee Opens Weaker at 85.39/USD Amid Strong U.S. Dollar, Tariff Concerns

Exporters Advised to Hedge Near 86; Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim After Robust U.S. Jobs Data

Published on: July 4, 2025

The Indian rupee opened 8 paise lower at 85.39 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, compared to its previous close of 85.31. The weakness came amid a broad rally in the greenback, driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of impending U.S. tariff actions.

Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said the rupee is expected to trade in a narrow range of 85.20 to 85.80 for the day. He advised exporters to hedge around the 86.00 level and importers to hedge near-term exposures at 85.30 or below.

The dollar index climbed to 97.07, while U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.33%, bolstered by the latest Non-Farm Payroll Report and the U.S. House's passage of a significant tax bill. The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in the latest report, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% and reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its July 25 meeting.

Bhansali noted that the U.S. is ramping up pressure on countries like Japan to finalize trade agreements, with tariffs expected to take effect from July 9. Former President Donald Trump confirmed that official tariff letters will begin rolling out Friday.

Oil prices remained stable, with Brent crude at $68.58 per barrel, ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for July 6. Trade volumes were thin due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

The rupee had recently shown strength, appreciating to 85.18, supported by foreign portfolio investment inflows and reduced dollar demand from the Reserve Bank of India and oil companies. Bhansali added that given the current data-driven rally in the dollar, exporters could consider selling on upticks, while importers may look to buy during downticks.

HDB Financial Services Soars After Blockbuster IPO Debut, Gains 4% on Day 2

Rs 12,500 Crore Issue Becomes Largest NBFC IPO; Stock Continues Rally Post Strong Market Debut

Published on: July 3, 2025

HDB Financial Services, the non-banking finance subsidiary of HDFC Bank, continued its impressive run on Dalal Street following a stellar debut. After listing at ₹835 on July 2—a 12.83% premium over its issue price of ₹740—the stock climbed further on July 3, gaining over 4% intraday.

The ₹12,500 crore IPO, comprising a ₹2,500 crore fresh issue and a ₹10,000 crore offer-for-sale (OFS) by HDFC Bank, marks the biggest IPO of 2025 so far and the largest ever by an NBFC. The issue received strong investor demand, with overall subscription at 16.69 times, including a massive 55.47x from Qualified Institutional Buyers.

With a market capitalization of ₹72,848 crore and trading volumes nearing 160 lakh shares on NSE, HDB Financial Services has quickly established a solid post-listing presence. HDFC Bank, post-OFS, retains a 74.19% stake in the company.

Proceeds from the fresh issue are earmarked to boost HDB Financial’s Tier-I capital base and support future lending growth. The company operates across enterprise lending, asset finance, and consumer finance, and also runs BPO services—positioning it as a key player in India’s diversified NBFC space.

HDFC Bank CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan Moves Supreme Court to Quash FIR Filed by Lilavati Hospital Trust

SC Agrees to Urgent Hearing After Bombay HC Declines to Expedite Case; Jagdishan Denies Allegations of Fraud and Bribery

Published on: July 3, 2025

In a high-profile legal development, HDFC Bank Ltd.’s Managing Director and CEO, Sashidhar Jagdishan, has approached the Supreme Court seeking urgent relief from a First Information Report (FIR) filed against him by the Trustees of Mumbai’s Lilavati Kirtilal Mehta Medical Trust. The FIR accuses Jagdishan of fraud and accepting a bribe of ₹2.05 crore—allegations he strongly denies.

The dispute reportedly stems from HDFC Bank’s loan recovery actions against the hospital trust, prompting retaliatory legal action, according to Jagdishan's legal team. Senior Advocate Mukul Rohatgi, representing HDFC Bank, argued before the Supreme Court on Thursday that the FIR is "baseless" and a result of "arm twisting" tactics by the trust. Rohatgi emphasized the need for immediate judicial intervention, citing delays by the Bombay High Court, which refused to expedite the matter and scheduled the next hearing for July 14.

The FIR was filed in May after the trust obtained a directive from a magistrate to initiate criminal proceedings. The Supreme Court has now agreed to hear the matter on Friday, where Jagdishan is expected to seek interim protection from arrest and an eventual quashing of the FIR. The case highlights the intensifying legal and financial conflict between one of India’s largest private banks and a prominent healthcare institution.

Tata Elxsi to Announce Q1 FY26 Results on July 10

Board Meeting Scheduled; Trading Window Remains Closed Until 48 Hours After Results Declaration

Published on: July 3, 2025

Tata Elxsi, the design and technology arm of the Tata Group, has announced that its Board of Directors will meet on July 10, 2025, to consider and approve the audited financial results for the first quarter of FY26. The company made this disclosure in a regulatory filing dated July 2 under SEBI’s Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements.

Operating across 36+ global locations, Tata Elxsi serves key industries such as automotive, broadcast, healthcare, and transportation, with strengths in cutting-edge technologies like AI, IoT, and cloud computing. The upcoming results will offer valuable insight into the company’s Q1 performance and future business trajectory.

While Tata Elxsi has not yet announced the schedule for its earnings call with analysts and investors, it confirmed that the trading window for insiders remains closed from June 25 and will reopen 48 hours after the results are declared, in line with SEBI's insider trading regulations.

On the market front, Tata Elxsi shares ended 0.53% higher at ₹6,217.50 on the NSE on Thursday, outperforming the Nifty 50, which closed 0.19% lower at 25,405.3.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Falls 2% After Macquarie Downgrade to ‘Neutral’ Despite Raised Target

Global Brokerage Cites Temporary Margin Concerns; Prefers Larger Private Banks Like HDFC and Axis

Published on: July 3, 2025

Kotak Mahindra Bank shares declined over 2% on Thursday, hitting ₹2,125.10 on the NSE, after global brokerage Macquarie downgraded the stock from ‘outperform’ to ‘neutral’. The downgrade came even as Macquarie raised its target price to ₹2,300, signaling limited upside in the near term.

In its latest note, Macquarie cited temporary margin concerns for banks but projected a healthy 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings per share (EPS) over the next three years. Despite the downgrade, the brokerage remains optimistic about the broader financial sector, favoring large private lenders and selectively bullish NBFCs.

Kotak Mahindra Bank was one of the top laggards on the Nifty Bank index, which traded in the red, even as broader markets remained positive. The stock has slipped 2.36% over the past two trading sessions.

Macquarie also made other rating adjustments: it upgraded PB Fintech to ‘neutral’ from ‘underperform’, raising its target to ₹1,945, and downgraded IndusInd Bank to ‘underperform’ from ‘outperform’, with a lower target of ₹650. Macquarie’s top sector picks now include HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Aditya Birla Capital, Power Finance Corporation, Shriram Housing Finance, and LIC.

Metal Stocks Climb as China's Services Growth Slows; Nifty Metal Index Extends Winning Streak

Weak Chinese Demand and Dollar Decline Fuel Rally; NMDC, Hindalco Lead Gains

Published on: July 3, 2025

Metal stocks saw notable upward momentum on July 3, buoyed by slowing growth in China’s services sector and a continuing decline in the U.S. dollar index. The Nifty Metal index rose nearly 0.6%, reaching around 9,756, marking its third consecutive day of gains and a cumulative rise of over 2.3%.

The rally was triggered after China’s Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI fell to 50.6 in June, down from 51.1 in May—its weakest reading since September 2024. Analysts at Caixin attributed the slowdown to weak external demand, ongoing U.S. tariffs, and logistical delays. These factors have dented optimism within China's business sector and strained supply chains, potentially benefiting Indian metal exporters by reducing global competition.

Among top performers, NMDC surged nearly 2% to ₹69, while Hindalco rose over 1% to ₹706. Jindal Steel & Power and Jindal Stainless Steel each gained around 1%, while Nalco and Tata Steel saw gains of approximately 0.8%. Hindustan Copper and Hindustan Zinc advanced by over 0.3%, and SAIL and Adani Enterprises edged up with marginal gains.

On the downside, JSW Steel, APL Apollo Tubes, Welspun Corp, and Vedanta traded in the red with modest losses, slightly capping the index’s overall gains.

The combination of weakened Chinese economic indicators, a softening dollar, and sustained domestic optimism continues to provide a competitive edge to India’s metal sector in the near term.

Tata Steel Aims for UK Profitability in FY25, Boosted by Restructuring and EAF Transition

Chairman N Chandrasekaran Sets Net Profit Target for UK Operations; Shares Surge Nearly 6% on Strategic Optimism

Published on: July 2, 2025

Tata Sons Chairman N Chandrasekaran has set a bold profitability target for Tata Steel’s UK operations in the current fiscal year, following years of losses since the $12 billion Corus acquisition in 2007. Speaking at the company’s 118th Annual General Meeting, Chandrasekaran said the company is aiming for a net profit (PAT positive) from its UK business this fiscal, addressing shareholder concerns and building on recent restructuring efforts.

The turnaround is being driven by the shutdown of loss-making blast furnaces and a pivot to electric arc furnace (EAF) technology. Tata Steel UK now operates a downstream-focused model, importing semi-finished steel and processing it at its domestic mills to reduce fixed costs. CEO T.V. Narendran had earlier indicated the unit would be EBITDA-positive this year.

To support this shift, Tata Steel is constructing a 3.2 million tonnes per annum EAF facility in the UK, backed by £500 million in UK government funding, as part of a broader £1.25 billion investment. A similar transition is planned in the Netherlands, where one of two blast furnaces will be replaced with a DRI-EAF setup by 2030.

The company has also launched a cost transformation initiative targeting ₹11,500 crore in savings by FY26 and has announced ₹15,000 crore in capex for FY25. This includes investments in European restructuring, EAF projects in India, and new mining assets for raw material security.

Shares of Tata Steel rose 5.8% on the NSE to ₹165.88 on Wednesday, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s profitability roadmap and green transition strategy.

Tata Steel Confident of Timely Green Steel Transition in Europe: Chairman N Chandrasekaran

Company Reaffirms Commitment to Sustainable Steelmaking in UK and Netherlands at 118th AGM

Published on: July 2, 2025

Tata Steel remains on track to complete its green steel transition in Europe as planned, Chairman N Chandrasekaran assured shareholders during the company’s 118th Annual General Meeting held on July 2. Addressing the AGM, Chandrasekaran reaffirmed the company’s commitment to sustainable steelmaking, stating that the transition to low-carbon steel production in both the UK and the Netherlands would proceed as scheduled over the next few years.

The initiative is part of Tata Steel’s broader strategy to reduce carbon emissions and align its European operations with global sustainability standards. The company’s progress on green steel comes amid increasing regulatory and environmental pressures across Europe.

Sensex, Nifty End Lower Amid Global Tariff Tensions; Financials Drag While Metals, Autos Gain

Markets Extend Risk-Off Mood as Investors Eye Policy Clarity, Earnings; IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints Slip

Published on: July 2, 2025

Indian stock markets remained under pressure on July 2, with benchmark indices closing lower amid persistent global uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment. The BSE Sensex fell 287.6 points to settle at 83,409.69, while the NSE Nifty50 dropped 88.45 points to 25,453.4. Broader market indices also ended in the red, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 slipping 0.14% and 0.41%, respectively.

Sectorally, metals, autos, and healthcare stocks outperformed, offering some resistance to the decline. However, financials, realty, and banking stocks witnessed strong selling pressure. Key losers included IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Shriram Finance, while Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki, and Hero MotoCorp saw marginal gains.

Among buzzing stocks, Asian Paints declined after the CCI initiated a probe into its distribution practices, and IndusInd Bank fell over 3% following a downgrade by Goldman Sachs. In contrast, Paras Defence rose 2% on a potential anti-drone deal, and Gabriel India hit the upper circuit amid restructuring optimism.

Investors remain cautious, awaiting fresh macroeconomic data and Q1 earnings reports for market direction, as global tariff concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.

HDB Financial Services Lists at 13% Premium, Gears Up to Tackle Credit Cycle Challenges

CEO G Ramesh Emphasizes Strategic Portfolio Approach Amid Economic Slowdown; Parent HDFC Bank Retains 74% Stake

Published on: July 2, 2025

HDB Financial Services Ltd. made a strong debut on the stock markets, listing at Rs 835—a 13% premium over its issue price of Rs 740—signaling investor confidence in the NBFC’s business model. CEO and MD G Ramesh addressed concerns about the slowing Indian economy and rising risks in unsecured lending, affirming that the company is equipped to navigate credit cycles through a sector-focused portfolio strategy.

The listing also marks HDB’s transition to an independently visible and capitalized public entity, with parent HDFC Bank retaining a 74% stake. HDFC Bank CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan called the event a major milestone, stating it will enhance HDB’s growth potential and market positioning.